Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods or our paper for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-06-20

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country

Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-06-09) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection

Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-06-09 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-09 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-09 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions

Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-09 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-09 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-06-09)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-06-09) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.

Country	New confirmed cases by infection date	Expected change in daily cases	Effective reproduction no.	Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan	706 (638 – 765)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	79 (28 – -96)
Albania	60 (46 – 75)	Increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.6)	9.7 (5.4 – 52)
Algeria	121 (99 – 141)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	50 (14 – -31)
Andorra	5 (0 – 12)	Unsure	1.4 (0 – 2.8)	2.7 (1 – -2.8)
Argentina	1235 (1164 – 1316)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	33 (20 – 85)
Armenia	590 (526 – 640)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	35 (18 – 440)
Australia	17 (9 – 25)	Likely increasing	1.4 (0.9 – 1.8)	7.7 (3.4 – -37)
Austria	30 (20 – 39)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.3)	470 (9.1 – -9.8)
Azerbaijan	367 (325 – 403)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	42 (19 – -200)
Bahrain	510 (465 – 559)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	950 (38 – -42)
Bangladesh	3623 (3337 – 3890)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	23 (19 – 31)
Belarus	736 (671 – 798)	Likely decreasing	1 (0.9 – 1)	-86 (99 – -30)
Belgium	100 (82 – 119)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1.1)	-33 (44 – -12)
Benin	39 (26 – 52)	Increasing	1.4 (1 – 1.7)	7.8 (4.3 – 51)
Bolivia	801 (721 – 864)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	16 (12 – 25)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	55 (37 – 68)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.5)	17 (7 – -46)
Brazil	27207 (25443 – 28919)	Increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	65 (45 – 110)
Bulgaria	88 (72 – 105)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	21 (9.2 – -79)
Cameroon	234 (199 – 268)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-39 (73 – -15)
Canada	407 (362 – 445)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-23 (-74 – -13)
Central African Republic	90 (68 – 108)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	-99 (17 – -13)
Chad	5 (0 – 10)	Unsure	1 (0.2 – 1.8)	160 (2.5 – -2.5)
Chile	10403 (9154 – 11679)	Increasing	1.3 (1.3 – 1.4)	9 (7.9 – 10)
China	40 (28 – 51)	Increasing	1.6 (1.2 – 2)	5.2 (3.2 – 14)
Colombia	2247 (2019 – 2446)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	13 (11 – 17)
Congo	27 (17 – 36)	Likely increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.7)	9.5 (4.5 – -72)
Costa Rica	58 (43 – 70)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	29 (9.1 – -25)
Cote dIvoire	264 (236 – 295)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (9 – 29)
Croatia	5 (0 – 8)	Likely increasing	2 (0.7 – 3.3)	3.4 (1.5 – -9)
Cuba	13 (5 – 18)	Unsure	1 (0.6 – 1.4)	-88 (6.3 – -5.5)
Czechia	54 (40 – 68)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	780 (13 – -14)
Democratic Republic of the Congo	114 (94 – 132)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-83 (25 – -16)
Denmark	43 (30 – 55)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.4)	24 (7.5 – -20)
Djibouti	27 (15 – 38)	Decreasing	0.7 (0.5 – 0.9)	-8.7 (-240 – -4.4)
Dominican Republic	482 (438 – 533)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	39 (19 – -11000)
Ecuador	621 (560 – 680)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	30 (17 – 110)
Egypt	1596 (1490 – 1723)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	38 (25 – 85)
El Salvador	115 (96 – 133)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	29 (11 – -57)
Equatorial Guinea	47 (33 – 60)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	-90 (11 – -9.2)
Estonia	7 (0 – 14)	Unsure	0.9 (0.4 – 1.5)	-11 (5.5 – -2.9)
Ethiopia	175 (153 – 200)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	60 (17 – -37)
Finland	15 (7 – 23)	Unsure	0.9 (0.6 – 1.2)	-24 (9.2 – -5.4)
France	450 (407 – 493)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	210 (32 – -46)
Gabon	137 (113 – 158)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.4)	9.7 (6.4 – 21)
Germany	429 (365 – 485)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	23 (13 – 80)
Ghana	335 (300 – 374)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	22 (13 – 86)
Greece	23 (13 – 32)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.4)	120 (7.5 – -8.8)
Guatemala	484 (428 – 539)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	18 (12 – 34)
Guinea	69 (53 – 82)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	23 (8.9 – -35)
Guinea Bissau	18 (9 – 25)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.9 – 1.7)	8.8 (3.8 – -26)
Haiti	146 (123 – 165)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-53 (37 – -15)
Honduras	455 (406 – 506)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.4)	11 (8.1 – 17)
Hungary	12 (2 – 21)	Unsure	1 (0.4 – 1.4)	-38 (5.9 – -4.3)
Iceland	4 (0 – 8)	Likely increasing	2.3 (0.5 – 3.8)	2.9 (1.2 – -6.5)
India	12315 (11455 – 13160)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.1)	26 (22 – 33)
Indonesia	1122 (1020 – 1213)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	23 (16 – 39)
Iran	2594 (2390 – 2784)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	49 (26 – 350)
Iraq	1356 (1232 – 1481)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	23 (17 – 36)
Ireland	17 (10 – 24)	Unsure	1 (0.6 – 1.3)	120 (6.6 – -7.5)
Israel	211 (183 – 241)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	17 (9.8 – 53)
Italy	309 (269 – 347)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	44 (18 – -95)
Japan	60 (44 – 74)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	14 (6.9 – -130)
Kazakhstan	366 (320 – 409)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	13 (9.1 – 22)
Kenya	151 (127 – 171)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	32 (13 – -63)
Kosovo	40 (28 – 52)	Likely increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.6)	11 (5.2 – -100)
Kuwait	562 (506 – 611)	Likely decreasing	1 (0.9 – 1)	-95 (76 – -29)
Kyrgyzstan	89 (71 – 105)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.5)	8.2 (5.3 – 19)
Latvia	4 (0 – 8)	Unsure	1.5 (0.4 – 2.5)	6.3 (1.9 – -4.7)
Lebanon	17 (6 – 23)	Unsure	1 (0.6 – 1.3)	380 (6.8 – -7.1)
Libya	18 (10 – 25)	Unsure	0.9 (0.6 – 1.2)	-22 (13 – -5.9)
Lithuania	8 (1 – 13)	Unsure	1.1 (0.5 – 1.5)	-360 (4.7 – -4.7)
Luxembourg	8 (2 – 13)	Likely increasing	1.4 (0.7 – 2)	9 (2.9 – -7.7)
Madagascar	33 (22 – 44)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	-96 (11 – -9)
Malawi	18 (9 – 25)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.4)	24 (5.5 – -11)
Malaysia	25 (13 – 34)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.5 – 1.1)	-11 (21 – -4.5)
Maldives	26 (16 – 35)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.5)	13 (5.2 – -22)
Mali	33 (20 – 44)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.2)	-43 (14 – -8.4)
Mauritania	134 (112 – 153)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	13 (7.3 – 42)
Mexico	4744 (4396 – 5072)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.1)	29 (23 – 39)
Moldova	358 (318 – 403)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (9.9 – 27)
Mongolia	3 (0 – 7)	Unsure	1.6 (0.3 – 3)	4.4 (1.4 – -3.7)
Morocco	77 (60 – 92)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	5300 (15 – -16)
Nepal	454 (413 – 492)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	17 (12 – 32)
Netherlands	162 (136 – 185)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-71 (35 – -18)
New Zealand	5 (0 – 10)	Likely increasing	2.7 (0.2 – 4.9)	1.6 (0.87 – -4)
Niger	9 (4 – 15)	Likely increasing	1.7 (0.9 – 2.6)	4.4 (2.1 – -30)
Nigeria	592 (523 – 644)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	17 (12 – 29)
North Macedonia	158 (136 – 181)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	35 (14 – -58)
Norway	17 (8 – 24)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.4)	100 (6.5 – -7.8)
Oman	1014 (940 – 1094)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	25 (17 – 49)
Pakistan	5880 (5566 – 6208)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	36 (27 – 53)
Palestine	20 (10 – 27)	Increasing	1.7 (1.1 – 2.3)	4.6 (2.6 – 19)
Panama	710 (637 – 769)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	17 (12 – 28)
Paraguay	17 (10 – 24)	Unsure	0.9 (0.6 – 1.2)	-24 (11 – -5.8)
Peru	4512 (4293 – 4707)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1)	150 (65 – -420)
Philippines	542 (489 – 589)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	1200 (42 – -45)
Poland	420 (373 – 464)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-150 (43 – -27)
Portugal	331 (289 – 370)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	81 (23 – -52)
Puerto Rico	99 (78 – 115)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1)	-17 (-190 – -8.9)
Qatar	1418 (1334 – 1510)	Decreasing	1 (0.9 – 1)	-76 (1600 – -36)
Romania	280 (242 – 316)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (9.4 – 29)
Russia	8808 (8323 – 9288)	Increasing	1 (1 – 1)	120 (66 – 920)
Saudi Arabia	4466 (4143 – 4844)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	17 (14 – 20)
Senegal	103 (83 – 120)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	340 (18 – -20)
Serbia	78 (59 – 93)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	56 (12 – -21)
Sierra Leone	30 (19 – 40)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.4)	29 (7 – -14)
Singapore	318 (284 – 349)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-58 (86 – -21)
Slovakia	6 (0 – 11)	Likely increasing	1.6 (0.6 – 2.4)	5.9 (2.1 – -7.5)
Somalia	35 (23 – 45)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.1)	-27 (19 – -7.8)
South Africa	3708 (3447 – 3984)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	17 (14 – 21)
South Korea	48 (34 – 60)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	60 (10 – -16)
South Sudan	31 (18 – 41)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.6 – 1)	-8.3 (-52 – -4.5)
Spain	378 (338 – 421)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	22 (13 – 67)
Sri Lanka	12 (5 – 18)	Unsure	0.9 (0.5 – 1.3)	-48 (6.5 – -5)
Sudan	222 (193 – 249)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	19 (11 – 82)
Sweden	1161 (1061 – 1252)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	25 (17 – 46)
Switzerland	25 (15 – 33)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.5)	16 (5.6 – -18)
Tajikistan	66 (50 – 79)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1)	-29 (31 – -10)
Thailand	5 (1 – 9)	Unsure	1.1 (0.4 – 1.9)	85 (3 – -3.2)
Tunisia	10 (2 – 15)	Increasing	1.8 (0.9 – 2.7)	3.6 (1.8 – 120)
Turkey	1460 (1321 – 1577)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	15 (12 – 20)
Uganda	12 (4 – 19)	Unsure	0.8 (0.5 – 1.2)	-12 (12 – -3.9)
Ukraine	738 (655 – 805)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	13 (9.8 – 19)
United Arab Emirates	426 (382 – 465)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-27 (-90 – -16)
United Kingdom	1339 (1244 – 1428)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1)	-190 (87 – -45)
United Republic of Tanzania	10 (4 – 15)	Decreasing	0.7 (0.4 – 1)	-8.4 (30 – -3.7)
United States of America	24818 (23104 – 26405)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.1)	33 (26 – 44)
Uzbekistan	155 (131 – 177)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	25 (11 – -180)
Venezuela	101 (81 – 117)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	-920 (18 – -17)
Yemen	55 (36 – 73)	Increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.6)	9.3 (5 – 75)
Zambia	26 (14 – 36)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.4)	110 (7.8 – -9.1)
Zimbabwe	20 (11 – 27)	Unsure	1.2 (0.8 – 1.6)	15 (4.9 – -14)